“TAOISEACH John Bruton has announced his intention to step down as Taoiseach on 7 May 2008. Mr Bruton, who first became Taoiseach in December 1994, has led Ireland during a period of unprecedented economic growth which also heralded the creation of a new relationship with Northern Ireland. He was the first leader of Fine Gael to be returned to office winning general election successes in 1997, 2002 and again last year. In that period, he saw off Bertie Ahern as Fianna Fail leader while Ahern’s successor Charlie McCreevy has thus far failed to lead his party back to power following its longest ever stretch in opposition.”
A scenario from the world of fantasy politics, yes. But, with the distance of time, when the history of the Ahern era is fully written, a key question to be answered will be, just how did Ahern emerge from the 1997 general election as Taoiseach. Or put another way, how did Bruton’s three-party Rainbow coalition fail to win?
Bruton came to power in late 1994 after a period of political turmoil involving Fianna Fail and the Labour Party. The Albert ReynoldsDick Spring arrangement had been riven at a senior level by personality differences and policy disputes although, it has to be said, more of the former than the latter.
Fianna Fail’s second attempt at participating in a coalition government ended in controversy and left a lingering doubt over the party’s ability to deal with a minor partner. Bruton’s new government restored political stability. In a few short years, Ireland became the fastestgrowing economy in Europe.
The statistics are worth recalling: GNP was 2.6% in 1993 but hit 9% in 1997; the unemployment rate was 15.5% in 1993 but by 1997 had fallen to 9.8%; the general government balance moved from a deficit of . . .2.2% in 1993 to a surplus of 1% in 1997.
There are many who claim credit for contributing to the birth of the so-called Celtic Tiger but the facts show the boom really took off during the Bruton regime. Yet, when the votes were counted and the seats were distributed in 1997, the Fine Gael-LabourDemocratic Left side had 75 TDs. Ahern’s Fianna Fail had 77 seats which, when combined with four Progressive Democrat TDs and the support of some independent deputies, was enough to oust Bruton from office. Last week in the Dail chamber, as tributes were paid to Ahern for his 11-year tenure as Taoiseach, Eamon Gilmore recalled the circumstances in which the Fianna Fail leader came to power: “It is not in any way to underestimate your subsequent achievements to state you were in many respects a lucky Taoiseach who came to office at a time of remarkable opportunity.”
Ahern was certainly lucky in 1997. His time as leader of the opposition had not convinced. It is forgotten now but his Dail performances were patchy and his opinion poll satisfaction ratings were unspectacular. So Bruton lost, and Ahern won . . . but how? With a conservative budget prior to the 1997 election, the Rainbow threw away their trump card on the economy. Fianna Fail also presented a clearer message on income taxation.
But, more importantly, during the election campaign Ahern wooed the voters.
Fianna Fail built a campaign around his personality. And the voters fell in love with ‘Bertie’. Even Sylvester Stallone, at the opening of the Planet Hollywood restaurant on St Stephen’s Green, took off his jacket and draped it across Ahern’s shoulders. At that moment the celebrity politician was born. And Ahern never looked back.
The man with the complicated private life . . . played out in public . . . moved seamlessly from the political columns to the gossip pages, and back again. He comfortably popped up as a pundit with Eamon Dunphy on The Premiership. He raised smiles . . . and expletives from his opponents . . . with his talk of tending to hanging baskets, cooking a bit of fish at the end of a working day and naming his favourite song as ‘How much is that doggy in the window?’.
And with a popstar for a son-in-law and a chick-lit novelist as a daughter, he built a celebrity profile around ‘Being Bertie’. In September 2006, on the day the first story about his controversial personal finances appeared in public, I was with Ahern in Co Clare. In public houses, hotels and schools . . . even at the opening of a women’s clothing shop . . . the public wanted to meet their Taoiseach. They wanted to shake his hand and have their photograph taken with him. At several functions, photographs from his previous visits adorned the walls. He continually brought his fame into their lives and, in return, sufficient numbers rewarded him with three successful electoral outcomes.
Northern Ireland will remain his greatest achievement. Only in the years to come will we properly judge if enough was achieved with the economic largesse of the boom years.
And more time again will be needed . . . and assessments required from those not so close to contemporary events . . . to judge the real impact of the money revelations. I have been consistently critical of his behaviour in accepting that money, but any judgements in that sphere should not take from the fact that Ahern was, and remains, a remarkable politician.
But he was also a lucky one.
